Euromonitor's Q4 Global Economic Forecast Predicts Worsening Conditions

The global economy appears to be headed on a course of “It gets worse before it gets better” – with more certainty on the former (worse), and too many uncertainties on the horizon to put a date on the latter (better).

Here’s an excerpt from Euromonitor’s Q4 economic forecast:

“The global economy continues to be on course of a sharp slowdown, with worsening outlook for the rest of 2022 and below-trend growth forecast for 2023. A looming energy crisis in Europe, surging cost of living, a sharp tightening of global financial conditions, and slowdown in China are major factors driving the dimmed growth outlook for the world. As more economies could fall into recession in 2023, the year ahead will be challenging for businesses and consumers worldwide.”

Looking ahead to the final quarter of 2022, Euromonitor further downgraded its Q3 forecast (see the previous issue of this newsletter). According to the white paper:

• Global real GDP growth is expected to decline from 6.2% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points lower than our predictions made in Q3 2022, respectively.
• Global inflation will peak at 9.0% in 2022 before it recedes somewhat in 2023.

Despite these sobering predictions, there are some opportunities to be found in emerging economies and developing countries. For example, according to the report: some Gulf economies are benefiting from energy exports; some Southeast Asian economies (e.g., Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia) are recovering from the pandemic; and India is expected to record strong growth of 7.3% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2023, on the back of robust investment and strong manufacturing and services sector.

For more, see the original article here.